Fantasy Football 2013: Three Wide Receivers Who Will Be Drafted Too High

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Sometimes a change in scenery is a good thing. For a couple of NFL receivers, a change of scenery heading into the 2013 season may mean a drop in production.

As we all know and often forget, some players are just better in certain systems. We’ve seen many instances where a guy puts up big numbers for one team and fails to do so the next because he wasn’t utilized the same way.

I’m thinking that’s exactly what’s going to happen to more than one wide receiver this year. As I result, I’m warning you to be wary of drafting these three receivers earlier than they should go.

WES WELKER, Denver Broncos — Peyton Manning and the Broncos rode their passing game to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC Playoffs last year. You don’t change what works. So now you add Wes Welker to that mix of receivers as the slot man. Manning’s offense doesn’t really feature the slot man, so don’t expect Welker to match the 170+ targets he hit each of the last two seasons. Manning throws to his No. 1 and No. 2 guys on the end, who last year combined for 264 targets. Brandon Stokley, the slot man for Denver in 2012, was targeted 58 times.

PERCY HARVIN, Seattle Seahawks — How many of you, without first looking up his stats, would have known that Percy Harvin has never broken the 1,000 yard barrier? It’s true. So now he heads out to Seattle to presumably become the No. 1 option on a team who didn’t have a single receiver break the 800 yard barrier in 2012. Harvin will be a nice toy for Pete Carroll and another threat teams have to plan for when facing the Seahawks, just don’t expect him to be a fantasy stud.

MIKE WALLACE, Miami Dolphins — It’s no secret that Mike Wallace’s specialty is the deep ball, given his 17.2 yards per catch average during his career. His best season was 2010, when he racked up 1,257 yards and 10 touchdowns. That was when he was catching passes from Big Ben while Hines Ward and Heath Miller worked the middle of the field and Rashard Mendenhall was putting up elite fantasy numbers. Miami has no elite back and no Hines Ward. They have Brian Hartline (famous for one game) working the middle and Ryan Tannehill (58.3 CMP %, 12 TDs, 13 INTs) throwing the ball. Wallace  is Miami’s most dangerous player. If I know it, so does every defensive coordinator he’ll face.

BY J.P. SCOTT ON MAY 8, 2013

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About J.P. Scott

Owner and editor of Know It All Football, contributor to AthlonSports.com and GridirionExperts.com. Member of the Football Writers Association of America.

3 thoughts on “Fantasy Football 2013: Three Wide Receivers Who Will Be Drafted Too High

  1. May 8, 2013 at 9:23 am

    I definitely agree with Wallace, I don’t think I would even draft him really. It’s understandable that Welker may not hit the same numbers he has in New England. But, I would have to disagree with you on Harvin. I had him in my PPR team last year and he was a guaranteed double digit points every week until his season-ending injury. He is on a better team with a better quarterback. I see him as a WR1, at least in PPR leagues.

  2. C'mon
    May 8, 2013 at 8:01 pm

    C’mon – Harvin was on pace for 1,000 + yards before injury and had a terrible QB chucking him the ball. He is easily a WR1 in PPR.

  3. May 12, 2013 at 9:23 am

    Denver didn’t bring walker in to be a decoy, but to try to rival his careers numbers in Denver.

    Welker is third receiver in Manning’s offense, which is better than it sounds. The wideouts on this team are very reminiscent of the group he had with the Indianapolis Colts in 2004 that included Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley.

    The 2004 season was by far Manning’s most productive fantasy season. He threw for 4,557 yards and 49 touchdowns, He also managed to throw over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns to all three of his standout wideouts, so Manning has had past success spreading the ball between three superstar receivers. The quarterback will easily throw over 4,500 yards and 45 TD.

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