PAC 12 Over/Under Picks for 2013: Is USC Overrated?

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It’s July and that means college football is just around the corner. Here at Know It All Football, we are just as antsy as you are. Fall can’t get here soon enough. For now, all we can do is read and write about what may come in order to quench our thirst for America’s greatest game.

Today, we take a look at the PAC 12 Conference and the numbers Vegas has assigned to each team as their over/under wins total for betting purposes. Before we go any deeper into this, let me first remind you that the information you are about to read is FREE and should you decide to bet your life savings based on what comes after this, I’m not responsible in any way.

That said, here are the 2013 over/under projections for the PAC 12 and my take on how you should bet (If that’s your thing).

ARIZONA – Over/Under: 7.5

Life after Matt Scott begins now in Tucson, and it will be interesting. I feel like they can start 3-0, rolling through their non-conference schedule. After that, it gets dicey. I can’t see them beating UW, USC, Oregon or Arizona State. That puts them at eight wins. They’ll have to go unbeaten vs. Utah, at Colorado, at Cal, vs. UCLA and vs. Washington State. I’m not sure they can get that done. Take the UNDER.

ARIZONA STATE – Over/Under: 9.5

To hit the over, the Sun Devils need to win ten games. I can’t see any scenario where that happens, given their brutal schedule. After opening with Sacramento State, they start a four-week gauntlet of Wisconsin, Stanford, USC and Norte Dame. I’ll be impressed if they split those, but I don’t see them winning more than one. The only other “gimme” game on their schedule is Colorado. This is easy money. Take the UNDER.

CALIFORNIA – Over/Under: 4.5

I wouldn’t even call what Cal is going through right now “rebuilding.” They just aren’t very good. Combine that with a schedule that has them opening with Northwestern and playing Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, USC and Stanford and the chips are already stacked against them.  They won’t win any of those games, meaning they’ll have to win five of the remaining six games against Portland State, Washington State, UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona and Colorado. They ain’t happenin’. Take the UNDER.

COLORADO – Over/Under: 3.5

Sure, 3.5 win seems like a low and manageable number, but the fact is that Colorado is only better than one team on their schedule: Central Arkansas. Pulling out four wins in 2013 would be cause for a parade in Boulder.  I’m seeing a pattern here. Take the UNDER.

OREGON – Over/Under: 10.5

Yes, Chip Kelly is gone, but this team is still loaded on both sides of the ball. 10.5 wins seems like a big number, and it is, but there is only one team on this schedule (Stanford) who can line up and play with Oregon day-in, day-out. The Ducks COULD lose to Stanford. A second loss to any team on the schedule would be a monumental upset. Take the OVER.

OREGON STATE – Over/Under: 8.5

The Beavers have a decent chance of opening the year 7-0. The problem is, they finish the season by playing Stanford, USC, Arizona State, Washington and Oregon. Winning two of those games is a lot to ask of anyone. Take the UNDER.

SOUTHERN CAL – Over/Under: 10.5

When I first saw 10.5 wins as the over/under for the Trojans, I laughed. Then I saw their schedule and stopped laughing. Despite the mass exodus of offensive talent last season, this is still a very talented USC team. Of the teams on their schedule, only Notre Dame and Stanford are on USC’s level from a pure talent standpoint. That said, there are too many trap games (at Oregon State, home vs. UCLA for example) to think these guys can win 11 games. That and I just don’t trust Lane Kiffin to get the most out of this team. Take the UNDER.

STANFORD – Over/Under: 9.5

Make no mistake, Stanford is the real deal. They get Oregon at home which is a plus. They do have to travel to USC, but I don’t see that being a big problem. They finish at home against Notre Dame, a game that I expect them to be favored in. After that, this is a very manageable schedule. If they drop more than two, I’ll be shocked. Take the OVER.

UCLA – Over/Under: 8.5

I see two guaranteed wins and one likely win on their schedule. They should beat New Mexico State, Colorado and Cal. After that, they have to pull out six wins against Nevada, at Nebraska, at Utah, at Stanford, at Oregon, at Arizona, home vs. Washington, home vs. Arizona State and at USC.  You gotta take the UNDER.

UTAH – Over/Under: 5.5

The Utes need to win six to hit the over. They should be able to start 2-0, but even that will be tough given the rivalry game with Utah State to start the year. They finish the season with Colorado which should get them to three wins. In between, they’ll play all of the PAC 12’s big guns and BYU. They are going to have a tough time winning more than five. I wouldn’t touch this, but if you must, I’m leaning toward the UNDER.

WASHINGTON – Over/Under: 7.5

I feel as though I like Washington more than a lot of people this season. I like the coach and the quarterback, and those are usually good signs when you have stability at both. They’ll have a tough game to open the year against Boise State. After that, the only teams on their schedule I can’t see them beating are Oregon and Stanford. They need to win eight, and I think they’ll do exactly that. Take the OVER.

WASHINGTON STATE – Over/Under: 4.5

The Cougars went 3-9 in year-one of the Mike Leach era. I don’t know that year-two gets much better. Things just seem chaotic up there and I’m not sure I like the overall vibe I’m getting from what Leach is doing. That first game against Auburn will speak volumes about the direction of the program. Even if they can beat Auburn on the road, I don’t feel confident about their ability to win four more games on a tough schedule. Take the UNDER.

BY J.P. SCOTT ON JULY 8, 2013

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